11 Housing Predictions for 2015; Compare with 2006 Predictions for 2007-8




The following 11 housing market predictions appeared in Forbes.com December 2014. As we come to the end of 2015, how do you think they did? I have seen "respected" media put out housing market forecasts that turned out to be very wrong.

For example, in December 2006, CNN Money (money.cnn.com) had an article that projected prices changes for 10 cities for 2007 and 2008. These are the projections and results for the top 5 cities in their article:

CNN top 5 in 2006

So, here are the 11 Forbes predictions for 2015:

  1. Prices will rise more slowly
  2. Affordability will worsen
  3. The buying frenzy will fade
  4. Mortgage interest rates will rise
  5. Millennials overtake Gen X as home buyers
  6. Rent increases will outpace home value growth
  7. Multifamily will reign 
  8. Builders shift to cheaper homes
  9. Foreclosures will match pre-recession levels
  10. Markets driven by fundamentals
  11. The wildcard: global geopolitics

Read the full article here.

But there are factors which affect cities differently. For example, there is the effect of Asian buyers on markets in San Francisco area and Las Vegas. These buyers, mostly from China, had been getting their money out of China and buying property in Vancouver. Vancouver prices sky-rocketed. Canada tightened controls on money coming into the country and this has now affected some cities in the U.S. On another topic: strange how the U.S. is concerned about your cash (i.e. potential money laundering), but evidently does not care about "dirty" money coming in from Asia. Also, these is the situation with banks not foreclosing and leaving many properties empty so that they can keep them on their books at higher values (the "mark to market" issue).

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